Design and validation of risk of low cardiac output syndrome in valve surgery
Abstract
Introduction: The incidence of postoperative low cardiac output syndrome is variable in the different published series, from 4% to 15%, with a mortality approaching 20%. Although in patients over 70 years of age the syndrome may be present in up to 63%, despite the development of better cardioprotection techniques and postoperative care, the incidence of this syndrome in high-risk populations has not changed in a significant proportion.
Objective: To design and validate a predictive model of postoperative low cardiac output syndrome through risk factors.
Methods: An analytical, case-control study was conducted in patients with postoperative low cardiac output syndrome attended at the Center for Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery of the Saturnino Lora Teaching Provincial Hospital in Santiago de Cuba, in the period 2019-2021. Logistic regression with adjustments to obtain the model was used.
Results: The highest value predictor risk factors are: age > 65 years, decreased right ventricular function, aortic clamping time, postoperative bleeding, which were the ones that yielded the logistic regression model. Internal validation was performed by data division.
Conclusions: The predictive model developed from logistic regression was composed of the predictors: age > 65 years, aortic clamping time > 90 minutes and prolonged postoperative bleeding. It presented good fit and discriminant power, especially positive predictive value.
DeCS: CARDIAC OUTPUT; HEART DISEASE RISK FACTORS; THORACIC SURGERY; FORECASTING; HEALTH EVALUATION.
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