Need for improvement in mathematical models of epidemiology
Keywords:
Modelos matemáticos, educación, posgrado, epidemiología, COVID-19Abstract
Introduction: In Cuba mathematical models are formulated, but they are not contemplated for passing graduate or undergraduate degrees.
Objective: To identify the need to work with mathematical simulations.
Methods: A stochastic model present in the EpiModel package of the R program was used. Three different situations were simulated, the first with violations of distancing and general hygiene, the second with improvements in these two aspects, plus the immunity achieved to 70% of the population by vaccination and the third with notable improvements in hygiene and distancing together with vaccination. The behavior of the reproductive number with the early R package was also calculated from the incidence.
Results: It is assessed how the trajectories with the stochastic models have more variability and how the reduction of contacts flattens the curve. The spread of the epidemic is valued in situations of prevention violations and in others where there is prevention and also vaccination.
Conclusions: Sufficient evidence is presented on the use and need of mathematical models to support decision-making in epidemiology, the need to improve the theory of epidemics in graduate school is identified, which can be extended to undergraduate.
DeCS: MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTS; ANALYTICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY; EPIDEMIOLOGIC MODELS; TIME SERIES STUDIES; COVID-19.
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22 julio 2025